In my first contribution to this site, a fortnight ago now, I used Tottenham Hotspur’s John Bostock as a portal to explore some of the issues surrounding young English players in today’s game.  And it would be fair to say that the overall tone of the piece was negative.  Well, one week (or two … ) is a long time in football …

John Bostock becomes youngest ever player for Spurs

Within 48 hours of The Youth Today being posted, Bostock made a small piece of history, becoming the youngest ever player to represent the club at first team level as he came on for the latter stages of the 4-0 UEFA Cup win over Dinamo Zagreb. He’s unlikely to become a first team regular anytime soon (he didn’t make the bench in this week’s Carling Cup tie against Liverpool) but it was nevertheless a welcome surprise and an exciting development. And, one can but hope, a sign of things to come. Certainly that was the message coming from the irrepressible Harry Redknapp. Speaking on the eve of the fixture, Redknapp’s enthusiasm for youth development was tangible – “I’d love to start getting some kids coming out of the youth team and into the first team. That would be the ultimate, the long-term aim.” Great news for Spurs fans.

However, it wasn’t events at the Lane that prompted me to pick up where I left off. Instead, it was a thought provoking blog that focused on the other lot from North London.

The blog I am referring to was written by the BBC’s chief football writer, Phil McNulty, and focused on the homegrown talent that this week propelled Arsenal to yet another League Cup quarter final (their 6^thin as many years). Those who read my last blog (and presumably there weren’t many Gooners among you) will recall that I was quick to dismiss Arsenal’s youngsters as being sickeningly gifted but largely foreign and/or bought. Well, it turns out I was wrong. Click below to find out why:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/philmcnulty/2008/11/could_wenger_shape_new_england.html

I stand corrected.

My final thought on how quickly things can change in football brings me back (only briefly, I promise) to White Hart Lane.  Was it really just three weeks ago that Spurs were impressively self-imploding at the Britannia Stadium, marooned to the foot of the table with a disastrous 2 points from 8 games and having managed to score just 5 league goals?  Unbelievable.  I’m still in a state of shock and I suspect I’m not the only one – just ask Rafa Benitez.  A victory at Craven Cottage this weekend and Spurs could find themselves gracing the top half of the table, some 10 months ahead of schedule.  How can one explain this extraordinary turnaround?  Without doubt, Redknapp must take significant credit for the way he has galvanised a squad that, quite literally, had hit rock bottom. But to fully understand Spurs’ incredible ascendancy, one must look further afield.

Outside of the top four – who, while not on imperious form this year, look collectively as untouchable as ever – it is difficult to recollect a time when the playing field has been so level.  Now, first of all, I should put my hands up and confess that my footballing knowledge goes back no further than the inaugural season of the Premier League.  Consequently, it is entirely possible that what we are seeing currently was the norm in the good ‘ole days and I am simply none the wiser.  For me though, what is so remarkable about the current season to date is the fact that I cannot recall anything quite like it.  Not wanting to be caught short twice in as many weeks (Jay Simpson who?), I thought I’d better cover my back and do some digging (if you ever find yourself at a loose end and/or really, really bored, www.statto.com could keep you entertained for hours) and, as a result, I can share the following: 

Currently, a mere 9 points is all that separates West Brom in 20^th (11 points) from Aston Villa in 5^th (20 points).  At the same stage last season, 18 points separated 20^th from 5^th.  In 2006-07 it was 13 points, 15 in 2005-06 and, leaping a further decade back to when the top flight was trimmed to its present 20 places, 18 points (again) in 1995-96.  Also, never before in the Premier League’s short history has the basement club been in double figures after 12 games.  Nottingham Forest, for the anoraks, came the closest back in ’92, with 9 points.  In the four previous campaigns used above, the gap between 17^th and 10^th places averaged 8 points.  This season, that gap is just 2 points.

(Brian Clough - Notts Forest) 9 points boys - it's going to be a good year!

So what does it all mean?  Well, ultimately, time will tell.  It’s still relatively early days and I for one would not be overly surprised to see a slow return to ‘business as usual’ in the coming weeks and months and, come May, a far more typical, dispersed table.  But the alternative, and very feasible at this point in time, is a relegation battle like none seen in recent times.  I think it might have been Harry Redknapp (I know, I really do need to broaden my horizons) who earlier this week said that there are 14 teams fighting the drop this year.  Fourteen!!  That number might be a bit generous but there really are an unusual number of teams with legitimate cause for concern.  West Brom, Stoke, Bolton, Fulham, Blackburn, Sunderland, Fulham, Newcastle, West Ham and Wigan all look capable of getting relegated, as things stand.  I haven’t included Spurs or Man City in that list and I don’t think it’s difficult to see why.  Hull have lost three on the bounce and could find themselves looking over their shoulder sooner rather than later and I would think Pompey fans might also be a little nervy while Tony Adams settles into his new role.   Middlesbrough are possibly the least quantifiable team in the whole league – atrocious one week and decent the next.  Which leaves Everton and Villa.  Both teams’ supporters might be slightly underwhelmed by progress this season but sleepless nights are not expected.

Returning once more to the BBC website, a few minutes spent with this little diversion and I can put the above to the test.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

Not wanting to spend all night at it, I kept to a simple process of using only 1-0, 1-1 and 0-1 score lines.  On this basis, my final Premier League table looked like this:

1. Chelsea – 99
2. Man Utd – 90
3. Liverpool – 90
4. Arsenal - 79
5. Spurs – 60
6. Everton – 55
7. Man City – 54
8. Villa – 54
9. Blackburn – 43
10. Wigan – 41
11. Fulham – 40
12. Portsmouth – 38
13. Sunderland – 38
14. Bolton – 37
15. Hull – 36
16. West Ham – 36
17. Newcastle – 34
18. Middlesbrough – 34
19. Stoke – 29
20. West Brom – 29 

How on earth did I manage to relegate Middlesbrough?  I’m also a bit disappointed to have steered Spurs to a top 5 finish – I hoped I was more objective than that!  Those aberrations aside though, I would stand by broad elements of this table.  For example, I do think that the teams finishing 5^th-8^th have the quality to pull away from the rest (without getting anywhere near the top four) but perhaps not in quite such a clear cut manner.  And Stoke (apologies to the editor) and West Brom probably are the two teams most likely to find themselves adrift at the bottom.  I’d probably bump Newcastle up a place or two – maybe in a straight swap with Sunderland – but other than that I think it’s credible.

At the very least, my version of events certainly bears out the possibility of an unconventionally large relegation fight. It could be a long season for many but a mouth watering prospect for the rest of us …

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